17.12.03

A propos the way things happen, here is the copy of a contribution I made to a discussion board to do with Economics and Business Studies Teaching: A couple of issues of interest: well, I think so anyway! On my web site at www.duncanwil.co.uk/solvlp.html I have a demonstration of the use of Excel's SOLVER function: a linear programming maximisation problem. Over the last couple of days I have been in correspondence with a visitor to my site and as a result I have added a useful section on plotting linear programming graphs in Excel. I know a lot of people have difficulties with plotting LP graphs on paper, let alone in Excel so this addition should prove useful for many. Your feedback will be welcome! Tutor2u.net have as their chart of the day a comparison of the GfK Consumer Confidence Index and Base Interest Rates and their headline reads Consumer confidence drops sharply in November following base rate rise. I think this is an excellent discussion case for anyone wanting to draw students’ attention to the development and presentation of an argument. On the face of it there is a high degree of correlation between the fall in the confidence index and the rise in base rates in November of this year. Moreover, go to http://www.martinhamblin-gfk.com/library/news_item.asp?NewsID=118&usa= which is the source of tutor2u.net’s data for the consumer confidence index and you will see this: Roger Wright, Director of Martin Hamblin GfK, commented: 'We are seeing consumer confidence falling again from its peak in July after a period of uncertainty. The increase in interest rates has probably affected how consumers perceive whether it is the right time to make major purchases.' Is this the final word on the subject? No it isn’t! Take a look at the rest of tutor2u.net’s graph and you will see that rises and falls in consumer confidence can be absolutely independent of changes in the base rate: Dec 2001 – Dec 2002 being an excellent example of where this is demonstrated. At other stages you will see that a fall in base rates has apparently led to a fall in consumer confidence: see Jul 2001 – Oct 2001 for evidence of that. So, read more from Martin Hamblin GfK to appreciate more of a balanced view of the consumer confidence index than the headline view from tutor2u.net: Martin Hamblin GfK provide us with a variety of additional reasons why consumer confidence might change in addition to changes in the base rate. Finally, in terms of the presentation of a stilted debate, take a look at the presentation of the value added measures relating to Key Stages 2 and 3 that begins here: http://www.dfes.gov.uk/performancetables/vap_02/docB.shtml Follow the links from page to page and you will find a huge amount of discussion on this topic … but there’s something missing! There are no real comparators to the value added data. All that we see are last year versus this year but there is nothing to help us to appreciate how and why value might have been added to or subtracted from. Get your better students to discuss the additional information needed by parents, teachers and government to provide much more balance to the debate. Otherwise we will all believe that Grammar Schools are the only ones managing their value added effectively: again the headline comments from today’s television and radio. In reality, of course, when all information is taken into account Grammar Schools might be performing badly. Let’s see absolute and relative data, as appropriate, for SSRs, revenue expenditure levels, capital expenditure, levels of administrative support, repairs and maintenance expenditures and more and only then we will see better balance. You could also ask the question of why industry hasn’t reported value added in its annual reports and accounts for a decade or more now. Best wishes DW

No comments: