22.12.18

FUNCTIONS ... top 100

I just came across a couple of pages on hbr.org that you need to know about and forgive me if these are behind a paywall: I subscribe to the HBR so I went straight to every page.

Firstly, 10 Excel Functions Everyone Should Know by Adam Lacey and Deborah Ashby. I prefer DGET to their INDEX-MATCH function but otherwise, this is a good start to learning the top 10. Top 10 Excel Functions

Then there is a REALLY useful PDF file The Definitive 100 Most Useful Excel Tips at https://excelwithbusiness.com/blog/definitive-100-most-useful-excel-tips/

Finally and following on from the 100 must useful Excel tips, Marc Zao-Zanders gives us this, A 2x2 Matrix to Help You to Prioritise the Skills to Learn Right Now, here: https://hbr.org/2017/09/a-2x2-matrix-to-help-you-prioritize-the-skills-to-learn-right-now This 2x2 matrix puts the 100 tips on a grid/graph to illustrate four quadrants:


  • Decide whether you need to learn it

  • Learn it as the chance arises

  • Schedule a block of time for learning it

  • Learn it right away



Marc says this, "You’ll find the quickest wins in the bottom-right quadrant, which we’ve labeled “Learn it right away.” In here we have time-saving shortcuts that can be applied frequently, like Ctrl-Y (redo) and F2 (edit cell) and a nice combination formula that cleanses your spreadsheet of errors (IF(ISERROR))." Of course, IF(ISERROR) is way out of date and should be replced by IFERROR()

Duncan Williamson

22nd December 2018

28.8.18

BS on a 'plane

What is it about being on or near an aeroplane that makes people come out with the biggest BS on the planet? Last night, we landed and as we waited for the door to open, I heard this exchange.

Man 1: Better than a 7 hour drive, eh?
Man 2: Yes!
Man 1: Where are you going now?
Man 2: I am changing airports
Man 1: Me too. Want to share a cab?
Man 2: indistinct!
Man 1: Where are you going, Shanghai?
Man 2: Dhaka
Man 1: Dhaka? What are you doing there?
Man 2: Working ... got a short term contract there.
Man 1: I worked in Dhaka and Shanghai and somewhere else

Then man 1 built on his BS this way

Man 1: Was it easy to get a visa?
Man 2: Indistinct
Man 1: They gave me the run around for a month
Man 2: No! I didn't have any problems like that. It all went well.
Man 1: The problem is, all of our people don't know squat.

Thankfully the door opened and I didn't have to eavesdrop any more.

By the way, if you want to go from one Bangkok airport to another and you have your flight details with you, you can take a free shuttle bus from door to door. Your flight cane even be 24 hours in advance and you can still take the shuttle!

DW

15.8.18

Singapore Airlines Superb Result

Introduction



If you have stumbled across this page hoping to find a cheap Business Class seat on Singapore Airlines (SIA), sorry! What you have arrived at is a page that explains how I found a superb result to my analysis of the last 19 years of SIA's financial results.

The Data



As I was using Power Query to help me to analyse SIA's financial results, I downloaded their last 19 years' worth of Annual Reports and Accounts and from there I downloaded everything you see here:

sia_blog_1

The question is, what can I do with all of that? What I often do as part of my financial analysis is to create a Net Income model. That is, I make Net Income the dependent variable and have one or more independent variables.

The First Model



My first model comprises Y = Net Income  = All Other Variables in the above table, all six of them. I used the Data Analysis ToolPak for this and here is my output:

sia_blog_2

A Correlation Matrix of all variables and I have conditionally formatted the results to highlight the extreme values and the mid range values. For example, Revenue and Fuel Costs are very highly correlated as are Passengers and Rev Pax Km (Revenue Passenger Kilometers). Rather oddly, there is virtually no correlation between Staff Costs and the Number of Employees.

The Regression output are as follows:

sia_blog_3

Let's note that the Adjusted R Squared value is high at 0.6755, the F statistic is significant at 7.25 but of the six independent variables only Staff Costs are significant, with a t statistic of 3.3287 and a P Value of 0.0060.

I think this is a superb result: Staff Costs being the only significant variable as its coefficient shows that a unit change to Staff Costs leads to a 2.5913 million SGD increase in Net Income.

The residuals plots show that everything is probably fine although we are only dealing with 19 data points or years of data:

sia_blog_4

Conclusion



On the one hand, this model fails because only one variable is significant and using just Staff Costs to predict Net Income is not rational. This says that we need to refine or replace the model to find something better. That being true, why do I think I found something superb?

SIA is famous for its recruitment of and investment in high quality cabin crew and other members of staff. Whilst they don't pay the highest salaries, they do reward well overall, training is high level and frequent, they use more cabin crew per flight than most, if not all, of its competitors to maximise customer satisfaction.

Out of all of that, the data contain the relationships that I just mentioned and regression analysis has brought them out! That is superb in my opinion!

I want you to replicate my work here so, whilst there is a spreadsheet to download, it only contains the data I have extracted and used. Feel free to ask for advice and guidance here but I am not providing the full spreadsheet file.

Download the file of data from here sia_data_blog

 

Duncan Williamson

14th August 2018

 

18.7.18

They Delayed my Flight ... Circus Time!

It is really not convenient when your travel plans are disrupted. Today, my flight has been delayed by about 8 hours. We got on the plane then we were thrown off.

Well, these things happen. It's what happens next that I find fascinating. Some people are just born bullshitters and being cooped up with a new, captive, audience is meat and drink to them. They can tell their old, tired, boring stories to other victims.

Then there are the people who want to know what if ... what if we don't leave today ... what if I want to transfer to another airline... what if ...

Then there is the food and drink voucher for an amount of money they can buy just about nothing. It's a big, price inflated airport for goodness sake!

Don't forget the passengers who know how to run an airline better than any airline and the passenger who knows all about ticketing and refunds ... la la la.

However, it is still true that this airline, along with most others, is rubbish at keeping their passengers informed. Rubbish.

DW

23.6.18

Shoe Shine

Last night I had my shoes shined by a shoe shine boy in the street. He did a fantastic job and my shoes are the shiniest they have ever been.

DW

7.5.18

Give me the Money!

As I travel into and out of Thailand, I often have to stay overnight in Bangkok. These days, I choose affordable places to stay since I travel alone and might spend as few as 8 hours there: who needs to pay a lot of money, including paying for a breakfast I cannot eat?

My latest arrival took me to a more expensive hotel and even though I knew they would want 1000 Baht deposit, I knew I didn't have it! I had just flown in from KL and had 300 Baht. I also had Ringgit and Dirhams and offered them instead. Not good enough, apparently!

I told the receptionist that I don't have a credit card and that is true. So when she said I should go to the ATM to get the Money, I said I don't have a card. How did I pay for the room, then, she asked? Online, I replied ... yes, I've got a debit card account but not the card! Again, that is the truth.

I took out my foreign currency notes and asked: what would you like? Notes from many countries. She asked, why do you have so many foreign notes and I replied, because I don't have a credit card!

She settled on 50 Singapore Dollars and I could now, after midnight, get to bed.

I have this kind of discussion in hotels everywhere: hotels do not trust us, they don't care that you have stayed there incident free for years, they treat us as if we are liars.

What I find irritating is that I often arrive so late. I will check out within 12 to 15 hours. I will get the deposit back.

It's stress I do not need and do not appreciate.

Incidentally, I rely on WiFi for my business and personal life when I am travelling so you can understand further frustration when the WiFi did not work in my room until 10 am ... 10 hours after I checked in.

At a completely unrelated hotel, they overcharged me by about £200. They put the credit on my bill. I said, when do I get that back. Glibly, I was told, two to three weeks. Can you believe that? I stood my ground and although three separate people argued with me and assured me they would PERSONALLY see to it that I would get my money back quickly, I said, you won't. I got my money but was made to feel like a thief. I didn't care!

DW

3.5.18

Playing Games? Not on my time!

I am at an airport and I am hungry so I went in search of food. There are only two cafes here and as one was very busy, I went to the other one.

I studied the menu, made my decision and joined the queue comprising one other person.

My joint queue friend was waiting patiently as ... you will not believe this ... the cashier played a game on his phone. As he ripped himself away from his phone to do whatever was no priority at all, I left.

'RE

26.4.18

Different Milks

Non Dairy Milks

As I turned vegan to a large extent recently, I have been trying different, non dairy, milks.

I tried Almond Milk but I found that as I left this milk in the fridge for a couple of days, once I had opened the packet, it got thicker and thicker. Made my breakfast cereal unpalatable.

I then switched to Soy milk but the main brands here are very sweet, even the low sugar versions. Then I found an Australian brand that is only slightly sweet and switched to that!

Every now and again I come across reports that Soy is bad for us, so I went back to Almond milk from the Australian company I just referred to: very good, no thickening, not too sweet. Almost twice the price of Soy milk, however.

Over the weekend I tried some Walnut milk and I like that.

I will probably alternate between Almond and Walnut milk although I have yet to try Pistachio milk!

Carageenan

By accident, I learned about Carrageenan, a thickening agent that can be found everywhere. It sounds dangerous although I found a reference to a study that said food additive Carrageenan is not harmful. Better safe than sorry, I wrote to the Australian company and they assured me that they have replaced Carrageenan in their products. The producer of the Walnut and Pistachio nut milks say on their packets, Carragenan Free.


DW

Please Rehearse

I have watched another few online videos/webinars and in addition to the most horrendously long introductions, the other major crime comes when the presenter surprises him/herself with an error or unexpected result.

Please rehearse before you create and please edit before you publish.

If you really are trying to train a novice, they WILL get confused as your cursor flies all over the place and your words do not match your actions.

DW

3.4.18

Introductions are Rubbish

The other day I attended a webinar and even though it was only scheduled to be an hour long, they spent 12+ minutes introducing themselves.

Last night I went to another webinar, completely different people; and they spend 24 out of 85 minutes introducing themselves ...

If you do presentations and webinars, learn from this. I attend these things to learn about the technicalities and not so much about the presenter ... put that stuff on a blog if you have to!

DW

31.1.18

Power Query: Gt & Transform in Excel Following the January 2018 Update

I am hosting four videos here for my Excel blog. Please watch them if you are using Power Query aka Get & Transform in Office365 ... Excel 2016.

Four videos that discuss the four main changes to G&T that were just announced.

Your feedback will be highly valued and I look forward to sharing it.

Hop over to my Excel Blog to download the Excel file

Video 1 Bucket/Bin Ranges

Video 2 Positive/Negative Association


Video 3 Positive/Negative Association Explained in Full

Video 4 Creating Associated Lists

DW
31st January 2018

25.1.18

Nobel Again

You have seen my long post on this subject, now read the shorter version in the Todmorden News ... Tod News

DW
25th January 2018

22.1.18

You are only fooling yourself

The other day I was travelling and saw something that I found disheartening.

A very large man was travelling with someone else and they were sitting together and chatting. Then this morbidly obese man left his friend and came and sat next to me. He carried a bag with him that he opened and started to take food out of: greasy burgers and chips with lots of coleslaw. He ate this food as if he had hardly eaten for weeks. After he had gorged himself he closed his bag and clearly wanted to clean his hands before he returned to his friend. So he wandered to the toilet to get clean and then went back to sit next to his friend.

I think I felt sorry for this man: clearly he has an eating disorder of some sort that includes hiding his consumption from his friend. I hope he can find some peace that will allow him to stop this long, slow suicide that he's in the middle of.

DW
22 Jan 2018

9.1.18

Analysis of Nobel Prizes

The place of Todmorden in the Annals of the Nobel Prize! as at the end of December 2017

Introduction

My home town is Todmorden in West Yorkshire, England and throughout all of my childhood we were proud to say that Todmordian John Douglas Cockcroft had won the Nobel Prize for Physics in 1951: it was a joint award and he won it with Ernest Walton of Dungarvan, Ireland. We are told they were the first to have split the atom!

In 1973 another Todmordian, Geoffrey Wilkinson won the Chemistry prize along with Ernst Otto Fischer for their work on sandwich compounds: they were working independently of one another, it seems.

This put us in the stratosphere: which other town or city on the planet could boast TWO Nobel Prize Winners? Moreover, in spite of the 24 year age gap between them, Cockcroft and Wilkinson shared the same science teacher at Todmorden Grammar School.

This article sets out to answer a series of questions I have never seen answered before which includes, is Todmorden unique in respect of it Nobel Prize achievements? Is Todmorden at the top of any Nobel list? Has any other town or city produced more than two Nobel Prizes. Has any town of the size of Todmorden or less produced two, or more, Nobel Prize winners? … all low level stuff but I could not find anywhere THE source that would tell me everything I wanted to know.

Yes, the Official Web Site of the Nobel Prize, https://www.nobelprize.org, contains a massive amount of detail but it didn’t tell me, for example, if Todmorden is the smallest town to produce two Laureates and so on.

My File

I have produced an Excel file that contains all of the basic details of every Nobel Prize there has been: from 1901 to 2017. My list includes every Laureate, date of the award, dates of birth, dates of death, male or female and more.

Since I was trying to make Todmorden the centre of attention, I had said in a Todmorden based Facebook forum last week that I felt it is probably unique in producing two Laureates relative to its population size! I had long since given up the notion that Todmorden was top of the pile in all respects, of course; because we must expect the University cities of Oxford, Cambridge (UK and USA), Paris, Bonn … to outshine little old Todmorden!

By the way, Todmorden is not a University town so Cockcroft and Wilkinson belong to us by rght of birth: they are Tod Lads!

I went to various sources to find the populations of the cities for which there are two Nobel Laureates. I did not look for the populations of cities that had 1 or 3 or 4 or more Laureates since Todmorden is not competing with them by my reckoning!

You can download my file from the link at the end of this article (ths link will appear in the final version of this article) and for Excel warriors, you will find that I have used a wide range of techniques in there that includes various functions and formulas as well as Get & Transform/Power Query, including some programming in M.

How Many Prizes?

 Todmorden has claimed two prizes: how many other towns and cities have claimed the same or more or less? Examples














New York is top of the pile by a long way, London is third and as you can see, Todmorden is there with two Laureates. Overall, the number of cities by number of prizes is as follows:













Todmorden, then, is one of 44 cities around the world to have claimed two Nobel Prizes: one of just 91 cities to have claimed more than one Nobel Prize.

Ages of Laureates

John Cockcroft was 54 years old when he won his prize and Geoffrey Wilkinson was 52 years old. For a Physics Laureate, Cockcroft was almost two years younger than the average and for a Chemistry Laureate, Wilkinson was over six yearsyounger than the average.



By the way, the first Nobel Prizes were awarded in 1901, a relatively modern institution; but take a look at the dates of birth of the first Laureates, from 1901 and 1902:



The second ever Nobel Literature Laurate, Theodor Mommsen, was born on 30th November 1817: there was no other Laureate born before Theodor Mommsen!

By the same token, the first 20th century born Laureate did not appear until Frederic Joliot-Curie was awarded the Chemistry Prize in 1935. Frederic was born on 19th March 1900 and was part of the famous Curie family! For interest, here is the Curie family Nobel history:

 

To date, the youngest ever Laureate is Malala Yousafzai of Pakistan who was a mere 17 years old when she won the 2014 Peace Prize: Malala was born 180 years after Theodor Mommsen! Until then, the youngest ever Laureate had been the 25 year old Australian William Lawrence Bragg who won the Physics Prize in 1915. The oldest prize winner to date is Russian born Leonid Hurwicz, who was 90 years old when he was awarded the 2007 Economics Prize.

Sex of Prize Winners

Up until the end of 2017, women have won just 49 Nobel Prizes, men have scooped the other 847: almost 30 prizes have been awarded to Organisations, so they are gender neutral!

Marie Curie’s award in 1903 was the first by a woman and in the first 20 years in which the Prizes were awarded, only four went to women. In the 20 years to the end of 2017, women have been awarded 21 Prizes.

I will attempt no answer to suggest why more women have not earned Nobel Prizes and I have to say that over the last 20 or so years, women have been actively lobbying for more women Laureates. Since they clearly cannot create scientific achievement out of thin air, the majority of prizes for women have been the Peace and Literature Prizes with a further 12, Physiology or Medicine, Prizes having been awarded to women!



Please note, the relatively small number of Prizes for Economics reflects the fact that the first Economics Prizes were not awarded until 1969. Moreover, the title of this Prize is, in full: The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel.

Populations and the Final Answer

For me, this is the big question: person for person, is a Todmorden Nobel Prize worth more than anywhere else on the planet? In other words, is Todmorden the smallest town in the world to have been awarded two Nobel Prizes?

Please note, I have not gone back to the dates of the award of the Prizes to find the populations of the cities concerned: in some cases that would be impossible anyway. What I have done is to take the latest figure I can find on the internet as at 8th January 2018 for all of the cities of interest.

Well, a two Prize city has a mean population of over 960,000 and a median of almost 388,000 inhabitants. Yay! Tiny Todmorden has around 15,500 inhabitants. The largest two Prize city is Mexico City with 8.9 million people, Halifax, 12 miles from Todmorden also has two Prize winners and has a population of 88,000 or thereabouts.

So, the smallest two Prize city is … Rendcombe in Gloucestershire with a population of just 354 people. More than that, their two Prizes came from one man, Frederick Sanger who won the Chemistry Prize outright in 1958 and outright again in 1980. Hats off to Frederick!

Conclusions

There you are: good news, bad news! Todmorden is in the elite Nobel Prize World by having two Nobel Prize winners in its history. It is the smallest town to have two Prize winners. Alas, it is not the smallest village! Let’s give due credit to Frederick Sanger and Rendcombe (or Rendcomb) for not only winning two Prizes but winning them both outright: a very rare achievement.

Sanger helped to answer another of the questions that was raised on the Facebook page I mentioned earlier and that is: is Todmorden Grammar the only school to have produced two Nobel Prizes? Again, no! However, let’s find a winning angle for Todmorden: Sanger won two prizes but he is only one Laureate, albeit Laureate and bar! So, for having two Laureates from the same school, Tod is Tops!

E&OE

Finally, this article took me several days both to research and for me to carry out the analysis in my Excel file: I humbly apologise if there are any errors here and if you do find something amiss, please let me know and I will correct it! I have made very few changes to the basic data but I have had to make a very small number of minor tweaks to place names/locations to prevent misrepresentation.

Acknowledgements I am grateful to the Nobel Prize organisation for making their database freely available and for the various sites that provided me with population and other data: in that regard, mainly www.wikipedia.com

Duncan Williamson
9th January 2018

Excel file for download: the link will appear here in the final version of this article