Understanding the Current Credit Crisis

If you want to get some kind of understanding of the current credit crisis, you need to read this article from The Economist of this week.

When a Flow Becomes a Flood http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12972083

The eye opener for me was this graphic: I have to confess that I knew a lot that goes behind that graphic but I didn't have the vision that this simple chart gives. http://www.economist.com/images/20090124/CBB721.gif Turn to the final page of any edition of The Economist and you will see a table Trade, exchange rates, budget balances and interest rates. In that table you will confirm what that graphic says and in the 24th - 30th January 2009 edition, the US Current Account Balance for the latest 12 months is $697.9 BILLION. Fear not, Britain' got the third biggest negative current account balance, albeit at a mere $45.6 BILLION after Spain's $164.1 BILLION.

You will also see quite a bit about the financial side of the developing world and how they have been financing some of the developed world.

The question still remains, however, where on earth has the US put this money? Is it in a depository in the Gulf Of Mexico along with its Oil store? Astonishing!

DW

Dorian Gray, is it me? No!

A client has described me in their marketing literature as a veteran.

Walking down a hospital corridor with niece Jemma the other day someone joyously identified me as Jemma's dad! I said to Jemma here's me thinking I look suave and young ... No offence.

Age, the unyielding parameter.

DW


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Duncan Williamson is a genius and you'd be silly not to get him to work for you. For money. For lots of it, preferably.

Windows Explorer: get a grip!

I am working hard at producing a really high quality learn all and do all type of book for Excel 2007. As part of my work I want to trawl through all of my files and folders to see what I have already done or what might be useful to include and so on.

 

So I went to Windows Explorer* to search folder and files and found that a lot of files were listed but that couldn’t open a preview image and couldn’t open the file. No error message, no warnings given ... just nothing.

 

I repeated that this morning only to find that I was still getting apparently useful materials that I couldn’t access. I dug a bit deeper this time and found that WE was still “finding” folders and files that I had deleted MONTHS if not a year or so ago.

 

No wonder more and more people are desperately trying to find alternatives to Microsoft and its woeful products.

 

I am not sure what version of WE I am using but it searches based on an index of my HDD it has prepared. Clearly, once something gets into the index* , it can never get out.

 

DW

 

Hartlepool Monkey

Just been listening to an interview on the Today programme with the Mayor of Hartlepool. This chap used to be the mascot of Hartlepool FC.

The mascot of HFC is a monkey. The name they gave the monkey?

Hangus ... Now that's funny!!

DW


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Super Burnley From the North

I was one of around 16,000 men, women and children who went to Turf Moor in Burnley last night and had a whale of a time: Burnley supporters. There seemed to be around 3,000 Tottenham Hotspur fans too.

We watched rank outsiders Burnley take on the mighty Tottenham Hotspur of London. Carling Cup semi final game, second leg. Burnley were behind 4:1 from the first leg and they needed to win 3:0 to be in with a shout of qualifying for the final.

Spurs were 100 - 1 ON to win the tie.

A hopeless task!

I said to a few people before the game, Burnley are playing very well at the moment. Spurs are playing badly. Even though Spurs is a Premiership team and Burnley a Championship team, I believed with the wind at their backs Burnley could win.

Playing conditions were atrocious: gusting wind, lashing rain, air temperature of around 4 degrees Celsius.

The game got under way and son Andrew and I had seats near the pitch towards the Sammy McIlroy Stand end. A good view. Spurs were not so mighty and Burnley got stronger and stronger as the game went on. The Spurs fans were in good voice and cocky.

Burnley scored: a cracking free kick that their goalie should have stopped. Half time came, we went inside for a warm and everyone was reasonably happy.

Well into the second half and Burnley scored again, Spurs continued to struggle and their fans went more or less quiet. We were more than content. The second substitution for Burnley saw teenager Jay Rodriguez, local Burnley lad, take the field and within a few minutes he'd scored Burnley's third goal. The goal that the bookies had said could not exist! The Spurs fans never uttered another word for a long time.

We were more than happy. Burnley were playing really well and the massively expensive and ostensibly talented Spurs were just ordinary.

Andrew had to leave to get his bus back to Salford: poor lad; but he saw all three goals! Full time came and extra time beckoned, a further 30 minutes of play.

In the interval between full time and extra time, one of the wittiest/funniest chants I have heard in a while emanated from Burnley throats: 4:1 and you f*cked it up, 4:1 and you f*cked it up, 4:1 and you f*cked it up ...

Extra time began with the crowd expectant. Eagles, Burnley winger, was suffering, his legs had gone but the crowd cheered him on to try to encourage him. He tried!

Burnley held their own in the first half of extra time. No doubt. The impossible was still within their grasp. Andrew came back: he missed his bus by two minutes! Lucky him and where else on earth would he rather be?!

After about five minutes into the final 15 minutes, I got the impression that Spurs were pushing Burnley back. Then they definitely were. Sad to say, as I was about to tell Andrew that Spurs were pushing Burnley back but were ineffective, they scored ... 3:1 on the night and just two and a half minutes left. Gutted. Then within another minute, another Spurs goal, 3:2 on the night and 6:4 on aggregate.

The Spurs fans came alive and the Burnley fans went quiet. Game over. Sorry sight. Sad faces.

Along the way, Burnley had beaten Fulham, Arsenal and Chelsea ... Premiership teams all; and they had throttled Spurs almost to death. Burnley single handedly humbled the Premiership in this Carling Cup competition this season.

Massive respect Burnley.

Andrew came home with me and we got here at around 23:00 - 23:15 hours or so and immediately made a chocolate milk drink and sat down to watch the match again ... cleverly I had recorded it! Watched the first half before bed and was pleased.

Andrew slept in as I watched the rest of the match on Thursday morning and was very pleased with that I saw, on average.

Spurs scored two good goals but only on the back of the Burnley players having more weary legs than the younger Spurs team. Give no credit to Spurs, they don't deserve it.

On Saturday Burnley take on West Bromwich Albion of the Premiership in the FA Cup! Watch out you Baggies!!!!

DW

Dreadful Service ... Again

On 8th January (two weeks ago) I ordered some computer parts, paid for them and dutifully waited for them to arrive. I have to confess that I meant to pay for express delivery but forgot. No matter, this is an award winning company and they often surprise with the speed of their delivery. I was not unhappy.

A week went by and then I began to consider that I might be waiting too long. So I went online and checked my account with this company and saw my order. In the despatch column it said queued so I decided to call the company to ask what was happening. This company has a good reputation so I happily left a voicemail message when I got through to a robot who told me that all their agents were all busy ...

A couple of days went by but I heard nothing from the company so I sent customer services an email asking for an update. I never got a reply and waited another couple of days when I called again and got the same robot so I left another message and said if I heard nothing within 24 hours I would have to cancel my order. As it happened I waited 48 hours before I acted again.

This time I called their Sales department thinking that I might get through much quicker to them and could ask them to treat me as an exception. I got the robot again but left a message saying that I will wait till close of business that day, after which time I'd cancel my order. Nothing.

I really wanted this company to have my business and they had taken the money from my credit card on 8th January, two weeks ago. I now decided to call again but this time to wait for as long as it took to get an answer from a real person. I waited and waited and waited, 25 minutes in total and got no reply.

I couldn't wait any more so this time I went back to the company's web site and sent an explanatory email to every email address I could find for the company: 10 or 12 of them.

My 1700 hours deadline came with no response from the company so I called my credit card company and asked them to cancel that payment. They told me what they would do ... job done.

I was disappointed because I have dealt with that company before and not been disappointed. They do provide a good product and service but they let me down and there was no way I could solve this problem. Son Andrew suggested I go to their sales outlet but that would have cost me a whole day of a trip ... time I cannot afford to waste as I need to make good progress with my new book.

I wondered, however, how is it that a random distribution of phone calls to this company never actually got me connected to a real live person AND they never responded to any voicemail or email message.

Lo and behold at 1730 or so, I received a phone call from the company who said they had received my email that afternoon ... they were very busy ... couldn't understand why no one had responded to my voicemails and emails. He then assured me that my order had now been despatched and would be with me tomorrow.

I replied that it was too late because I had called my credit card company and cancelled the payment. He asked me if he should recall the order then and I replied, "You can do what you like". He said OK and we said goodbye.

What should happen now? I think the company will do nothing else. I would like an apology from them: a simple email or phone call to apologise for wasting my time and energy. After all, I have now lost an opportunity to do what I wanted to do and may have no time to finish it before I go off to  my next assignment. Moreover, it took me a long time to sort out what I wanted to do and to place the order.

More Great British service. In a recession, too, when everyone needs all the business they can get ... don't they?

DW

Avoidance

I am avoiding the television and radio today for fear of having THAT ceremony in Washington DC thrust at me. It has nothing to do with me, I think it is racist to keep going on about his African roots and the man spent two years and $1.6 BILLION on himself to ensure he got the job.

Eeugh! No thanks.

I willl be listening to the Archers and watching the football and that's it. Come on Derby!!

DW


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How to Write a Request ... NOT

Everyone here knows that if they write to me with a request for help and/or information, I will help if I can. I certainly try to ensure that I reply and explain if I can't help.

Yesterday, I received this message:

hi,

I need the model answers for AQA GCE Report on the examination, january 2006 business nad management (P&O)

THANK YOU

That's it, no how do you do or yours sincerely ...

This morning I did something I have never done before, by replying as follows:

Well, thank you for sharing that with me!

Usually in such cases I reply properly and ask them to introduce themselves and usually they do!

DW

Political Stupidity

I can't help making a few political comments although this is a personal/business blog.

This week we had some stupendous nonsense when Lady Vadera suggested that she thought that things might not be as bad with the Economy as the rest of us seem to think.

Apparently she needed to apologise for saying that because it was an insensitive thing to say. Apparently she is not allowed even to think what she said.

My questions:

Democracy and free speech?
Why suddenly do we now learn that Vadera is very powerful and Mr Brown needs to be careful?
Why tell us that years ago Vadera met Tory Sarah Hogg with a view to working with her but didn't?

The stupid tree dwellers are back!

Speaking of stupid, I see William Hague is moving back up the Tory Party. Clever and focused, the foetus as he is known, Hague utters more crass nonsense even than George Osborne and David Cameron combined.

Now Heathrow! So there will be a third runway and a sixth terminal at LHR. I hear everyone ranting at the environmental aspects of this project. All badly informed comment I think.

Today on Radio 4 had a clever aviation chappie on the programme yesterday who pointed out that fuel consumption in aviation has been falling at 2% a year for many years already, carbon fibre bodies are coming in that will save a lot more and new engine types are becoming available that will save a further 10%.

Even the uselessly combative interviewer John Humphrys was flattened by this news and meekly moved on.

It's fine to be green but it's better to be properly informed. I am making NO judgement on the merits of the LHR project here, by the way.

DW
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I Didn't Forget

It came around to 12th January again and my thoughts turned to John Sutcliffe.

John was my best friend from the age of 3 or 4 and throughout my early childhood. 12th is John's birthday. Tragically, though, John died in a motor bike accident a couple of years ago.

RIP John and at least you now know the answer to the greatest question of all!

DW


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Increasing by one every day ... whatever can it be?

A while ago I bought a new radio phone for home and gave my old one to my next door neighbour. It meant I could call him and he could tell me where in the house he was at the time ... an unintended consequence!

 

Well, my neighbour’s a nice old man but not that tech savvy so every now and again he asks me to look at the phone to sort out a problem for him.

 

The other day he brought one of the handsets together with the user’s manual and asked if I could sort out a problem he just couldn’t fathom.

 

He showed me the display and said, See that number? I just can’t get rid of it. And every day it increases by one.

 

I said, That’s the date, M: it’s meant to be like that!

 

My neighbour said, Well I never ...

 

Nice story I think!!

 

DW

Bull in a China Shop? Peace, man!

I read a report of an experiment recently where they put a real bull in a real china shop.

What they found was that the bull carefully AVOIDED all shelving and china. VERY little damage done.

So they put another bull in the shop and together they both tried to avoid the china and shelving. Again, VERY little damage done.

Finally, they put a third bull in the shop and, in perfect harmony with diseconomies of scale, only now was there any damage as the bulls needed to avoid each other as much as the china and shelving!

This was on Mythbusters! So where did the bull in a china shop scare story come from I wonder?

DW

MPs … whatever happened laddie?

As I travel around and read newspapers from a variety of different countries, I notice the way that people behave, how journalists report things and so on. When I visit a new country or go back to a country for the first time in over a year or so I bring home with me a new copy of a local, usually national, newspaper. Just for interest.

Anyway, you have probably started noticing that there are no Members of Parliament any more or Senators or whatever you USED to call them. For some reason, the 12 year old journalists who inhabit our television news rooms and newspaper news rooms and so on have decided that an MP is now a law maker.

Of course, when I feel the need to discuss the goings on in a parliament or other house of government, I shall continue to refer to MPs, Senators and so on. The fact that they make laws is taken for granted but it is only one part of their jobs.

DW

Home Networking

I know I have not been alone in my quest to have my various computers at home talking to each other but eventually I got some help from a couple of decent chappies on the internet and now, I have just got my desktop and my main laptop talking to each other.

The solution was simple but I have been aghast at how counter intuitive it was for my Vista and XP computers to remain so stubbornly opposed to talking to each other until now.

The network is working across my wireless network so the cross over cable I bought in the middle of last year is, I am happy to say, redundant. It cost very little and I am sure that one day I will use it or donate it to someone who can use it.

For all of the wasted time and lack of networking opportunities Bill Gates III, thanks for nothing. For all of the people on the internet who swell Microsoft’s coffers every day against their better judgement, but who are actually saving Gates’ @rse, I say a big and genuine thank you.

DW

Please Explain

Louis Vuitton bags the colour of poo! Can someone please explain to me the attraction of a poo brown bag?

Moreover, very expensive.

Moreover, as the LV logo is plastered all over the bags, the owner of the bag pays a premium to advertise the company making the bags when it should be contrariwise, in my opinion.

DW


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Bambi NOT on ICE

You know that tall and gangly sports people are often described as being like Bambi on ice. Well, where do you think that Bambi is no longer on ICE?

ICE refers to Emirates Airlines' in flight system:

Information
Communication
Entertainment

Since Bambi is no longer shown on the ICE system it is not possible watch Disney's cartoon Bambi on Emirates now.

Poo!

DW


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The BBC Hitting Rock Bottom?

So, a Premiership footballer has been charged with assault and affray following an alleged assault in a bar. Nothing new there and not only football players can do that!

Now then, does anyone consider that a footballer potentially disgracing himself is worthy of being the second leading story on BBC News: Radio 4 news from 6 am today?

This man plays football for a living: why does that make this story of national import? I don't care who the footballer is, why is such a minor offence being made out to be a national importance?

Moreover, in my daily BBC email I see that this assault and affray is shown both under news and football. Is this really a football story? I don't think so!

DW

BBC News Falls Down the Stupid Tree ... Again

• Here we are again, happy as can be
• Listening to lots of hogwash from the BBC

They've said it before and they say it again: the number of suicides in the USA following the 1929 Wall Street Crash was exceptional. I read part of a book by JK Galbraith recently and he had a chapter on this topic. Let Galbraith tell the story:

In his classic examination of the 1929 Wall Street crash John Galbraith disabuses us of a widely held notion:

In the week or so following Black Thursday, the London penny press told delightedly of the scenes in downtown New York. Speculators were hurling themselves from windows; pedestrians picked their ways delicately between the bodies of fallen financiers.

In the United States the suicide wave that followed the stock market crash is part of the legend of 1929. In fact there was none. For several years before 1929 the suicide rate had been gradually rising. It continued to increase in that year, with a further and much sharper increase in 1930, 1931 and 1932 – years when there were many things besides the stock market to cause people to conclude that life was no longer worth living (chapter 8).

Galbraith goes on to say that in the two months following the crash the number of suicides in New York were actually comparatively low. There were in fact only two suicides on Wall Street ...

http://frontierpsychiatrist.co.uk/category/suicide/

Wall Street Crash 1929

That rather gay Aussie, Aaron, who works on the business news at BBC World yesterday compared the current global economic downturn to the 1929 crash. Completely off his trolley but he was allowed to say that without being challenged. It is well known by even the most amateur of economists that there is no effective comparison to be made between 1929 and now. It's more BBC driven hogwash but it didn't stop them showing a few news reel clips from 1929 on yet another programme today. In that programme, as a matter of interest, there was an "expert" who had learned to say that today's situation is unique. That's all, he had nothing else to say. I hope they didn't pay him for that. That was in a review programme in which three "experts" were brought in to discuss this year's financial crisis. Extremely low level, all three trying desperately not to offend each other. One of them was wearing the most ridiculous socksI've seen in quite a while: at least they matched his shirt!

Lame Duck President?

By the way, when and where did you first hear George W Bush denounced as a lame duck president? You know the story, someone thinks it's smart that they can say on the radio or television that a US President who is about to leave office must be incapable of taking decisions ... What do you think? November, October, September? How about February of this year? Some young girl of a reporter included that sentiment in a report she had put together. My guess is that there was a lottery syndicate in the newsroom: who can work in this lame duck president angle first.

DW

Merry Christmas One and All!

Christmas comes but once a year. Innit.

So, happy Christmas to all of my many readers. Hope you enjoy the next few days with those you love, doing what you want and enjoy.

And other heart felt and sloppy sentiments.

Don't worry about me though, working over the holiday. All alone. In a hotel room. By myself. In a foreign country.

Take a look at my web site's home page, by the way: revamped! Let me know your thoughts.

All the best one and all.

DW

Senior Citizen

I have impudently been asked by my barber if I am a pensioner since he gives discounts for senior citizens. I tell him to ask again in 10 years.

On Sunday, however, I was given a discount of 3 Ringgit at the Manara Tower in Kuala Lumpur on account of my age! She started by asking how old I was as I asked for a ticket to go up the tower and when I said 21 she looked completely flummoxed ... as if I hadn't understood the question.The innocence of it all!

Makes me realise that it won't be long before I am announcing to the world that "I'm 83 you know!"

It's a 33 degree very sunny scorcher today, since you ask!

DW