27.10.19

Fondest Memories of Sister Fiona

My sister Fiona died over the summer and, as I usually do, I write a few words to help our family members on their way. Here are those words.

In Loving Memory of Fiona Christine

As we have all seen before when I have written tributes to our departed, I have usually been stuck in a time warp that ended in 1988. This is more or less the same but rather than relate a long litany of things, I decided to record just half a dozen things that Fiona did or said that are best known as Fionaisms.

 Susan Greenwood featured large in Fiona’s life in their formative years and here’s a classic from that time: With just Fiona and I in the room, Susan came and knocked on our back door.
For some childish reason, I shouted “We’re not in”
In a panic and as she dashed to answer the door, Fiona shouted back, “We are”!

 I left home in 1974 for good or ill and, of course, returned home at the end of every term and sometimes more often. My dates were known so I was always expected. Apart from the time that a friend from Accrington was getting a lift home from his dad and they kindly offered to drive me home, too.

Providing I could go with them the day before the end of term. As if I wouldn’t agree to that.

 I must have arrived around 6 pm or thereabouts and I opened the door with a ta daa, surprise … and Fiona, who’d have been about 15 at that time and who just happened to be in the middle of the room, saw me and announced “There’s no tea for you”!

 Speaking of being given a lift, our Susan very kindly offered to give me a lift back to Sunderland from Tod one day and Fiona came with us. At about the half way mark we decided it was time for a cuppa. So, we pulled into a nice looking place in Harrogate, I think it was. We ordered one by one, whatever we ordered. This is Fiona’s order:

 Waiter: What would you care for, madam? Fiona: Tea, please.
Waiter: Black or white, madam?
Fiona: Wadam ... er, white, please.

  I was told the following story and think it’s true but it could have happened to anyone. I don’t remember the exact conversation, so I have invented that part. Fiona and Danny going around Madame Tussaud’s Waxworks. La la la. Ooh, look, that’s Tom Cruise. I didn’t know Arnold Schwarzenegger was so short …

Then they either got lost or wanted some information and saw someone sitting at a desk near by so Fiona sauntered over and asked them for directions.

Turns out the person behind the desk was another exhibit so there was little surprise when it didn’t answer.

 Don’t forget, now that Carol and Fiona have left us, there is only one arch cheese and onion pie maker left in the family. That’s a big burden, Susan!

 This final story follows on from Fiona’s baking skills. When I was living in Kazakhstan, I asked Fiona if I could make a video of her making a cheese and onion pie. She agreed and we did it and it was a good video: sadly lost to technology.

Anyway, when I got back to Almaty, I thought it would be a cracking idea to get some of our English teachers to use the video for our students to learn about English pies and to listen to a native speaker speaking.

Remembering that foreigners are usually taught to speak Cambridge or Oxford English, listening to Fiona’s West Riding accent caused a few in the audience to ask, “What on earth is she saying? Where is she from”!

 That’s no reflection on Fiona at all but I thought it was an enlightening experience. 

Anyway, light hearted moments at the saddest time in someone’s life. They leave so much behind and since everyone else has been with her and around her since 1988, there must be thousands and thousands more stories to tell. Or just to remember as you walk down the street, gawp at the telly or when sitting in a vacant mood one day.

 Sorry you had to go so soon and it is absolutely, copper bottomed guaranteed that you are going to be missed.

 Duncan 20th August 2019

27.5.19

BREXIT Follow up

You might well have read my small rant on Brexit from earlier this year. In the final sentence of that post, I concluded by saying, it can only go wrong.

Brexit Post 1

Last week, our ridiculous Prime Minister set her resignation date and then we have just had the most monstrous EU MEP election charade. She made Brexit go from bad to far worse.

The Man from Mars test would conclude that the UK is going to hell in a handcart and we're all doomed. Well, many a true word as the follow up to the resignation of the Prime Minister story is that she needs to be replaced. It must come as no surprise that the leading candidate for that job, who will be elected by a tiny number of people from within their political party, is a serial arsehole of the greatest magnitude. The Man from Mars will be asking himself how the laws of nature can be used to stop yet another anomaly.

Surely we do not deserve this punishment?

DW

Is there life on Maaaaaars?

Get your name in lights and sign up for a boarding pass on the 2020 NASA mission to Mars


DW

4.1.19

BREXIT

I get involved in discussions online about all sorts of things via newspaper comment threads and the one that has been getting my goat is anything to do with the Great British disease Brexit. This is the monstrous boil on the arse of a country that has done and created so much for the world and now, because of the power of the shyster, the liar and the self seeking, it is being dragged down by grossly incompetent politicians as they seek to leave their mark on history whilst claiming they are fulfilling the wish of the people.

What these wretched people have done is set out massively disjointed, unprovable, unscientific arguments that favour their own personal agendas but what they have not done, not one of them, is to provide leadership. Their crime is that they have set out one side of an argument and left it at that. You will say, that is democracy and I say yes it is. What has then happened, however, it that the monstrous carbuncle of a Prime Minister has done nothing whatsoever to provide the missing leadership: she has not in any way attempted to balance the arguments and provide a reasoned conclusion on the proper way forward.

No, Theresa May, started out two years ago by saying Brexit means Brexit and since then has done deal after stupid deal to keep her minority government in office such that Brexit means goodness knows what.

It can only go wrong.

DW

New Year 2019

Happy new year to everyone who stumbles across this infrequent blog: I used to write as often as every day or so but there are so many things to do these days.

Here is a link you need if you want to try a fantastic egg (or mushroom or tofu) curry that takes a bit of time but is not difficult: Chef de Home Delicious Egg Curry

Away we go into 2019!

DW

22.12.18

FUNCTIONS ... top 100

I just came across a couple of pages on hbr.org that you need to know about and forgive me if these are behind a paywall: I subscribe to the HBR so I went straight to every page.

Firstly, 10 Excel Functions Everyone Should Know by Adam Lacey and Deborah Ashby. I prefer DGET to their INDEX-MATCH function but otherwise, this is a good start to learning the top 10. Top 10 Excel Functions

Then there is a REALLY useful PDF file The Definitive 100 Most Useful Excel Tips at https://excelwithbusiness.com/blog/definitive-100-most-useful-excel-tips/

Finally and following on from the 100 must useful Excel tips, Marc Zao-Zanders gives us this, A 2x2 Matrix to Help You to Prioritise the Skills to Learn Right Now, here: https://hbr.org/2017/09/a-2x2-matrix-to-help-you-prioritize-the-skills-to-learn-right-now This 2x2 matrix puts the 100 tips on a grid/graph to illustrate four quadrants:


  • Decide whether you need to learn it

  • Learn it as the chance arises

  • Schedule a block of time for learning it

  • Learn it right away



Marc says this, "You’ll find the quickest wins in the bottom-right quadrant, which we’ve labeled “Learn it right away.” In here we have time-saving shortcuts that can be applied frequently, like Ctrl-Y (redo) and F2 (edit cell) and a nice combination formula that cleanses your spreadsheet of errors (IF(ISERROR))." Of course, IF(ISERROR) is way out of date and should be replced by IFERROR()

Duncan Williamson

22nd December 2018

28.8.18

BS on a 'plane

What is it about being on or near an aeroplane that makes people come out with the biggest BS on the planet? Last night, we landed and as we waited for the door to open, I heard this exchange.

Man 1: Better than a 7 hour drive, eh?
Man 2: Yes!
Man 1: Where are you going now?
Man 2: I am changing airports
Man 1: Me too. Want to share a cab?
Man 2: indistinct!
Man 1: Where are you going, Shanghai?
Man 2: Dhaka
Man 1: Dhaka? What are you doing there?
Man 2: Working ... got a short term contract there.
Man 1: I worked in Dhaka and Shanghai and somewhere else

Then man 1 built on his BS this way

Man 1: Was it easy to get a visa?
Man 2: Indistinct
Man 1: They gave me the run around for a month
Man 2: No! I didn't have any problems like that. It all went well.
Man 1: The problem is, all of our people don't know squat.

Thankfully the door opened and I didn't have to eavesdrop any more.

By the way, if you want to go from one Bangkok airport to another and you have your flight details with you, you can take a free shuttle bus from door to door. Your flight cane even be 24 hours in advance and you can still take the shuttle!

DW

15.8.18

Singapore Airlines Superb Result

Introduction



If you have stumbled across this page hoping to find a cheap Business Class seat on Singapore Airlines (SIA), sorry! What you have arrived at is a page that explains how I found a superb result to my analysis of the last 19 years of SIA's financial results.

The Data



As I was using Power Query to help me to analyse SIA's financial results, I downloaded their last 19 years' worth of Annual Reports and Accounts and from there I downloaded everything you see here:

sia_blog_1

The question is, what can I do with all of that? What I often do as part of my financial analysis is to create a Net Income model. That is, I make Net Income the dependent variable and have one or more independent variables.

The First Model



My first model comprises Y = Net Income  = All Other Variables in the above table, all six of them. I used the Data Analysis ToolPak for this and here is my output:

sia_blog_2

A Correlation Matrix of all variables and I have conditionally formatted the results to highlight the extreme values and the mid range values. For example, Revenue and Fuel Costs are very highly correlated as are Passengers and Rev Pax Km (Revenue Passenger Kilometers). Rather oddly, there is virtually no correlation between Staff Costs and the Number of Employees.

The Regression output are as follows:

sia_blog_3

Let's note that the Adjusted R Squared value is high at 0.6755, the F statistic is significant at 7.25 but of the six independent variables only Staff Costs are significant, with a t statistic of 3.3287 and a P Value of 0.0060.

I think this is a superb result: Staff Costs being the only significant variable as its coefficient shows that a unit change to Staff Costs leads to a 2.5913 million SGD increase in Net Income.

The residuals plots show that everything is probably fine although we are only dealing with 19 data points or years of data:

sia_blog_4

Conclusion



On the one hand, this model fails because only one variable is significant and using just Staff Costs to predict Net Income is not rational. This says that we need to refine or replace the model to find something better. That being true, why do I think I found something superb?

SIA is famous for its recruitment of and investment in high quality cabin crew and other members of staff. Whilst they don't pay the highest salaries, they do reward well overall, training is high level and frequent, they use more cabin crew per flight than most, if not all, of its competitors to maximise customer satisfaction.

Out of all of that, the data contain the relationships that I just mentioned and regression analysis has brought them out! That is superb in my opinion!

I want you to replicate my work here so, whilst there is a spreadsheet to download, it only contains the data I have extracted and used. Feel free to ask for advice and guidance here but I am not providing the full spreadsheet file.

Download the file of data from here sia_data_blog

 

Duncan Williamson

14th August 2018

 

18.7.18

They Delayed my Flight ... Circus Time!

It is really not convenient when your travel plans are disrupted. Today, my flight has been delayed by about 8 hours. We got on the plane then we were thrown off.

Well, these things happen. It's what happens next that I find fascinating. Some people are just born bullshitters and being cooped up with a new, captive, audience is meat and drink to them. They can tell their old, tired, boring stories to other victims.

Then there are the people who want to know what if ... what if we don't leave today ... what if I want to transfer to another airline... what if ...

Then there is the food and drink voucher for an amount of money they can buy just about nothing. It's a big, price inflated airport for goodness sake!

Don't forget the passengers who know how to run an airline better than any airline and the passenger who knows all about ticketing and refunds ... la la la.

However, it is still true that this airline, along with most others, is rubbish at keeping their passengers informed. Rubbish.

DW

23.6.18

Shoe Shine

Last night I had my shoes shined by a shoe shine boy in the street. He did a fantastic job and my shoes are the shiniest they have ever been.

DW

7.5.18

Give me the Money!

As I travel into and out of Thailand, I often have to stay overnight in Bangkok. These days, I choose affordable places to stay since I travel alone and might spend as few as 8 hours there: who needs to pay a lot of money, including paying for a breakfast I cannot eat?

My latest arrival took me to a more expensive hotel and even though I knew they would want 1000 Baht deposit, I knew I didn't have it! I had just flown in from KL and had 300 Baht. I also had Ringgit and Dirhams and offered them instead. Not good enough, apparently!

I told the receptionist that I don't have a credit card and that is true. So when she said I should go to the ATM to get the Money, I said I don't have a card. How did I pay for the room, then, she asked? Online, I replied ... yes, I've got a debit card account but not the card! Again, that is the truth.

I took out my foreign currency notes and asked: what would you like? Notes from many countries. She asked, why do you have so many foreign notes and I replied, because I don't have a credit card!

She settled on 50 Singapore Dollars and I could now, after midnight, get to bed.

I have this kind of discussion in hotels everywhere: hotels do not trust us, they don't care that you have stayed there incident free for years, they treat us as if we are liars.

What I find irritating is that I often arrive so late. I will check out within 12 to 15 hours. I will get the deposit back.

It's stress I do not need and do not appreciate.

Incidentally, I rely on WiFi for my business and personal life when I am travelling so you can understand further frustration when the WiFi did not work in my room until 10 am ... 10 hours after I checked in.

At a completely unrelated hotel, they overcharged me by about £200. They put the credit on my bill. I said, when do I get that back. Glibly, I was told, two to three weeks. Can you believe that? I stood my ground and although three separate people argued with me and assured me they would PERSONALLY see to it that I would get my money back quickly, I said, you won't. I got my money but was made to feel like a thief. I didn't care!

DW

3.5.18

Playing Games? Not on my time!

I am at an airport and I am hungry so I went in search of food. There are only two cafes here and as one was very busy, I went to the other one.

I studied the menu, made my decision and joined the queue comprising one other person.

My joint queue friend was waiting patiently as ... you will not believe this ... the cashier played a game on his phone. As he ripped himself away from his phone to do whatever was no priority at all, I left.

'RE

26.4.18

Different Milks

Non Dairy Milks

As I turned vegan to a large extent recently, I have been trying different, non dairy, milks.

I tried Almond Milk but I found that as I left this milk in the fridge for a couple of days, once I had opened the packet, it got thicker and thicker. Made my breakfast cereal unpalatable.

I then switched to Soy milk but the main brands here are very sweet, even the low sugar versions. Then I found an Australian brand that is only slightly sweet and switched to that!

Every now and again I come across reports that Soy is bad for us, so I went back to Almond milk from the Australian company I just referred to: very good, no thickening, not too sweet. Almost twice the price of Soy milk, however.

Over the weekend I tried some Walnut milk and I like that.

I will probably alternate between Almond and Walnut milk although I have yet to try Pistachio milk!

Carageenan

By accident, I learned about Carrageenan, a thickening agent that can be found everywhere. It sounds dangerous although I found a reference to a study that said food additive Carrageenan is not harmful. Better safe than sorry, I wrote to the Australian company and they assured me that they have replaced Carrageenan in their products. The producer of the Walnut and Pistachio nut milks say on their packets, Carragenan Free.


DW

Please Rehearse

I have watched another few online videos/webinars and in addition to the most horrendously long introductions, the other major crime comes when the presenter surprises him/herself with an error or unexpected result.

Please rehearse before you create and please edit before you publish.

If you really are trying to train a novice, they WILL get confused as your cursor flies all over the place and your words do not match your actions.

DW

3.4.18

Introductions are Rubbish

The other day I attended a webinar and even though it was only scheduled to be an hour long, they spent 12+ minutes introducing themselves.

Last night I went to another webinar, completely different people; and they spend 24 out of 85 minutes introducing themselves ...

If you do presentations and webinars, learn from this. I attend these things to learn about the technicalities and not so much about the presenter ... put that stuff on a blog if you have to!

DW

31.1.18

Power Query: Gt & Transform in Excel Following the January 2018 Update

I am hosting four videos here for my Excel blog. Please watch them if you are using Power Query aka Get & Transform in Office365 ... Excel 2016.

Four videos that discuss the four main changes to G&T that were just announced.

Your feedback will be highly valued and I look forward to sharing it.

Hop over to my Excel Blog to download the Excel file

Video 1 Bucket/Bin Ranges

Video 2 Positive/Negative Association


Video 3 Positive/Negative Association Explained in Full

Video 4 Creating Associated Lists

DW
31st January 2018

25.1.18

Nobel Again

You have seen my long post on this subject, now read the shorter version in the Todmorden News ... Tod News

DW
25th January 2018

22.1.18

You are only fooling yourself

The other day I was travelling and saw something that I found disheartening.

A very large man was travelling with someone else and they were sitting together and chatting. Then this morbidly obese man left his friend and came and sat next to me. He carried a bag with him that he opened and started to take food out of: greasy burgers and chips with lots of coleslaw. He ate this food as if he had hardly eaten for weeks. After he had gorged himself he closed his bag and clearly wanted to clean his hands before he returned to his friend. So he wandered to the toilet to get clean and then went back to sit next to his friend.

I think I felt sorry for this man: clearly he has an eating disorder of some sort that includes hiding his consumption from his friend. I hope he can find some peace that will allow him to stop this long, slow suicide that he's in the middle of.

DW
22 Jan 2018